Questions people put numbers on
Any level, any index, any deadline — as long as it resolves cleanly, it gets a probability.
A single probability of YES with a confidence band — and the evidence that moves it.
A full distribution: median, P10–P90 band, and the odds of clearing each threshold.
A distribution over dates — median arrival plus milestone probabilities along the way.
Tail-risk questions welcome — the panel prices the path, not just the endpoint.
A probability for every option — including the scenarios nobody proposed.
Relative calls too: pairs, spreads, and benchmarks with precise resolution criteria.
Why it beats a hot take
Forecasters search today’s market — prices, filings, positioning, the news of the last hour. Post-cutoff evidence is the whole point.
Every forecast resolves against criteria pinned down in advance: a printable close, a level, a date. No weasel room, no moving targets.
Bull and bear cases, the red-team attacks they survived, and deterministic math from panel views to the headline number. All published.