Event forecasts Sign in

Ahead of the headline

The news moves markets.
Forecast the news.

Tariff rulings, elections, antitrust verdicts, OPEC meetings, shutdown deadlines — the biggest market moves start outside the market. Independent AI forecasters research the event itself from primary sources and hand you calibrated odds before it resolves, with every step of the reasoning published.

Forecast an event See live examples

Events worth a probability

If it has a resolution date and a checkable outcome, it can be forecast — well before the wire flashes.

Binary
“Will new tariffs on chips take effect this year?”

Policy questions read the actual rulemaking record, not just the coverage of it.

Multiple choice
“Who wins the election — and by what margin band?”

Every outcome gets a probability, including the ones the polls aren’t pricing.

Date
“When does the antitrust case reach a verdict?”

Court and regulatory timelines as date distributions, milestone by milestone.

Binary
“Will OPEC+ announce a production cut at its next meeting?”

Supply-side geopolitics, forecast from communiqués, quotas, and member behavior.

Binary
“Will Congress avert the shutdown before the deadline?”

Deadline questions track the actual legislative calendar and the votes that exist.

Numeric
“How many rate-sensitive IPOs price this quarter?”

Count and quantity questions get a full distribution, not a point guess.

Built for fast-moving stories

Reads today, not last year

Panels search the live web at forecast time — filings, dockets, official statements, this hour’s reporting. A developing story is exactly where stale training data fails.

Separates signal from take

Primary sources outrank punditry. Each analyst cites what they actually read, and a red team attacks claims that lean on vibes.

Updates as events do

Re-run a question when the story turns and watch the probability move — with a fresh, fully published rationale for the change.

Get the probability before the push alert.

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