Fed & rate forecasts Sign in

The rate path, quantified

Cut, hold, or hike —
put numbers on it.

Everyone parses the same statement; few commit to a probability. Independent AI forecasters read the Fed’s own words, the dot plot, inflation and labor prints, and what officials said this week — then converge on calibrated odds for each meeting, with every step of the reasoning published.

Forecast a Fed question See live examples

The questions that set the curve

Meeting outcomes, first-cut timing, terminal rates — anything the FOMC calendar can resolve.

Binary
“Will the FOMC cut rates at its next meeting?”

A calibrated probability of a cut, with the statement language and data that drive it.

Date
“When does the funds rate first drop below 3%?”

A distribution over meetings — median timing plus the odds by each checkpoint you care about.

Multiple choice
“How many cuts this calendar year: zero, one, two, or more?”

A probability on every path, not just the consensus one.

Binary
“Will core CPI print above 3% next release?”

The data that moves the Fed, forecast on the same footing as the Fed itself.

Numeric
“Where is the target range at year end?”

A full distribution over terminal levels, with the probability mass shown per range.

Binary
“Will the next dot plot show fewer cuts than the last?”

Communication questions too — the panel reads Fed speak so you don’t have to.

Not just a futures-implied number

Reasoning, not just odds

Market-implied probabilities tell you what is priced, never why. Here every probability ships with the argument that produced it — and the counterarguments it survived.

Reads the primary sources

Statements, minutes, testimony, speeches, SEP projections, and this morning’s data — pulled live at forecast time, cited in the report.

Disagreement is data

Multiple independent models argue hawk and dove. The spread between them is reported, not averaged away — you see how contested the call is.

Know the odds before the statement drops.

Start forecasting Browse public forecasts