Four shapes of answer
Ask it however it comes to mind — an analyst restates it precisely and picks the right forecast shape.
A single calibrated probability of YES, with a confidence band and the evidence that moves it.
A full distribution over dates — median, P10–P90 band, and milestone probabilities for your checkpoints.
A probability for every outcome on a well-posed option set, including the scenarios nobody proposed.
A distribution over a quantity — median, band, and the probability of clearing each threshold you care about.
From plain English to a number
Type it as you think it
“Is the housing market going to crack next year?” is a fine start — messy is allowed.
Approve the sharp version
The analyst proposes precise resolution criteria — what counts, by when, per which source. You approve before anything runs.
Panels go to work
Independent AI forecasters research live sources, survive a red team, and converge through deterministic math.
Minutes later: the report
The probability, the confidence band, every analyst’s case, and the math — emailed to you when it’s done.
Questions that fit nowhere else
“Will our lease renewal cost more than 20% extra?” No exchange lists it. It still deserves a real probability.
Breaking developments have no Wikipedia section yet. Live research beats waiting for someone to write the recap.
When a decision hangs on it, “probably” is not a number. Get odds you can argue with — and the argument itself.